Sunday, November 21, 2021

Aslan Bases in Dark Nebula

Following the inconclusive end of the Solomani Rim War… Solomani attention has since turned to other frontier areas, including the Aslan territories. Fortunately for the Aslan, the encounters have primarily been between the Solomani and either the Yerlyaruiwo or the Khaukheairl, both clans strong enough to hold their own with the Solomani (CT Aslan 3).

A heavily militarized section of the Aslan/Solomani frontier in Dark Nebula.

With this passage in mind, I reviewed the Dark Nebula sector data for evidence of Yerlyaruiwo or Khaukheairl military forces on the Confederation border. I wasn’t shocked to find scant support: Tlaukhu worlds aren’t exactly rare, but with ten different power blocs, finding a cluster of worlds associated with any one bloc—even the two most powerful blocs—is fairly unusual.

But as I started to dig in, I realized that the total number of Aslan bases seemed fairly low, particularly when compared to the Solomani Confederation. Even knowing that the Aslan have notorious difficulty coordinating inter-clan efforts, and knowing that most clan navies are constructed to fight other clans rather than interstellar states, for such a militaristic race to not mount some kind of defense in the face of Human aggression seemed rather odd.

But the number of Aslan bases in Dark Nebula didn’t just seem low in light of hostilities with the Solomani. The number of bases seemed low compared to a normal Aslan sector.

Generating Aslan Bases

The CT Aslan module (1984) describes two different types of naval bases found in the Hierate: Tlaukhu bases, built and occupied by members of the Twenty-Nine, and clan bases, used by all other types of clans. These bases are determined during world generation much like Imperial navy or scout bases. But in addition to considering starport type, Aslan bases also consider government type.

Dark Nebula bases were first detailed in the CT module Atlas of the Imperium (1984). That partial sector data was then used as the basis for the sector data in the MT supplement Solomani and Aslan (1991). And that data was the basis for the current data on Traveller Map.

I had long assumed that the Aslan bases in Atlas of the Imperium had been determined using CT Aslan world gen. In order to check that assumption, we can compare the actual number of bases in Dark Nebula against the expected number of bases that would be produced from Aslan world gen. But first, we need to break those worlds out by starport and, instead of using Government type, I’ll substitute the T5 allegiance codes, which provide similar information.

There are 234 Aslan Hierate worlds in Dark Nebula:

Hierate Worlds In Dark Nebula
AllegianceStarport Type
ABCDEX
Spilt Control (AsSc)111412260
On-World Clan (AsWc)658260
Multi-World Clan (AsMw)620125140
Tlaukhu Clan (AsTX)6811370
Vassal Clan (AsVc)2711860
Tlaukhu Vassal (AsTv)36115110
Total34606525500

From here we can calculate the total number of bases we would expect to have for each combination of starport and allegiance code.

Tlaukhu Bases

The Tlaukhu clans maintain larger, more powerful, and more advanced navies compared to other clans. Their bases can be found on worlds directly controlled by Tlaukhu members, their vassals, and split-control worlds. The following table details the percentage chance for having a Tlaukhu base at different Hierate systems:

Frequency Of Tlaukhu Bases
AllegianceStarport Type
ABCDEX
Spilt Control (AsSc)58.33%41.66%27.77%16.66%
On-World Clan (AsWc)
Multi-World Clan (AsMw)
Tlaukhu Clan (AsTX)83.33%72.22%58.33%41.66%41.66%
Vassal Clan (AsVc)
Tlaukhu Vassal (AsTv)41.66%27.77%16.66%8.33%

Note that this table details the potential presence of one or more bases in a single system. In a split control world divided up by six different Tlaukhu clans, each clan could have its own in-system base. Similarly, a world directly controlled by a Tlaukhu clan or its vassal might, at least theoretically, host multiple Tlaukhu bases if an allied clan from the same power bloc were present in-system.

Multiplying the number of worlds of each category by the corresponding frequency, we can determine the expected number of systems with Tlaukhu bases in Dark Nebula:

Expected Tlaukhu Bases
AllegianceStarport Type
ABCDEX
Spilt Control (AsSc)663000
On-World Clan (AsWc)000000
Multi-World Clan (AsMw)000000
Tlaukhu Clan (AsTX)566100
Vassal Clan (AsVc)000000
Tlaukhu Vassal (AsTv)122000
Total121411100

Using CT Aslan world generation, we would expect 38 systems with Tlaukhu bases, which is surprisingly close to the 39 systems with naval bases we would expect to produce using the default world gen system from The Traveller Book.

But let’s take a look at the actual numbers from Dark Nebula:

Actual Tlaukhu Bases
AllegianceStarport Type
ABCDEX
Spilt Control (AsSc)300000
On-World Clan (AsWc)000000
Multi-World Clan (AsMw)010000
Tlaukhu Clan (AsTX)120000
Vassal Clan (AsVc)000000
Tlaukhu Vassal (AsTv)000000
Total430000

Less than 20% of the expected number of systems in Dark Nebula have Tlaukhu bases. No wonder the Solomani have been able to snatch up so many border worlds!

Clan Bases

Clan bases are naval bases built by any clan other than a member of the Tlaukhu. Generally, clan navies are smaller and less advanced than Tlaukhu forces. The following table lists the chances for one or more clan bases to be present in different Hierate systems:

Frequency Of Clan Bases
AllegianceStarport Type
ABCDEX
Spilt Control (AsSc)72.22%58.33%41.66%27.77%
On-World Clan (AsWc)72.22%58.33%41.66%27.77%27.77%
Multi-World Clan (AsMw)83.33%72.22%58.33%41.66%41.66%
Tlaukhu Clan (AsTX)
Vassal Clan (AsVc)72.22%58.33%41.66%27.77%
Tlaukhu Vassal (AsTv)58.33%41.66%27.77%16.66%

Multiplying these frequencies by the corresponding number of worlds lets us calculate the expected number of systems with clan bases:

Expected Clan Bases
AllegianceStarport Type
ABCDEX
Spilt Control (AsSc)885100
On-World Clan (AsWc)433100
Multi-World Clan (AsMw)5147200
Tlaukhu Clan (AsTX)000000
Vassal Clan (AsVc)145200
Tlaukhu Vassal (AsTv)223100
Total203123700

Using CT Aslan world generation, we would expect to have 81 systems with one or more clan bases in Dark Nebula. By way of comparison, using The Traveller Book world gen we would expect to generate 62 systems with scout bases.

But yet again, we find that the actual number of systems in Dark Nebula with clan bases is far less than expected:

Actual Clan Bases
AllegianceStarport Type
ABCDEX
Spilt Control (AsSc)210000
On-World Clan (AsWc)200000
Multi-World Clan (AsMw)010000
Tlaukhu Clan (AsTX)000000
Vassal Clan (AsVc)100000
Tlaukhu Vassal (AsTv)011000
Total531000

This is only a little more than 11% of what we would expect from CT Aslan world generation.

Note that Atlas of the Imperium lists two additional worlds in Dark Nebula as having clan bases: Troi' (DARK 1923 E787A78-9) and Fiyhiyha' (DARK 0938 B43248A-B). Neither system has a base in the current Traveller Map data. I think this was an intentional decision for Troi', as worlds with Class E starports normally cannot have bases. I suspect that Fiyhiyha' was simply a mistake, so I recommend reinstating the base there.

Summary

Here’s a summary of our analysis of bases in Dark Nebula:

Summary Of Hierate Bases In Dark Nebula
AllegianceStarport TypeTotal
ABCDEX
TlaukhuExpected12141110038
Actual4300007
ClanExpected20312370081
Actual5310009

I honestly don’t have a great recommendation for what to do here in part because I don’t understand what happened. And I was surprised not to find any past discussions on the Traveller Mailing List or on the Citizens of the Imperium board.

We see similar patterns in other Aslan sectors from Atlas of the Imperium. There the percentage of systems with either Tlaukhu or clan bases are Hlakhoi 7%, Ealiyasiyw 9%, Staihaia'yo 10%, and Iwahfuah 12%. Keep in mind that the Atlas of the Imperium provided the basis for all subsequent versions of sector data, official and unofficial. And the reviewers of the T5 Second Survey project generally considered the Atlas the gold standard source.

Which begs the question, how did Atlas of the Imperium determine the presence of Aslan bases? The Atlas was published the same year as the Aslan alien module, so the developers might or might not have had access to the Aslan world gen sequence. But even if they did, that system uses Government type to determine the presence of bases. And the Atlas did not generate Government data.

A low number of Aslan bases in Dark Nebula might have been a simple mistake—a faulty random formula, for example. But although MT Solomani and Aslan uses the same world gen sequence as CT, the authors of that supplement did not take the opportunity to correct the number of Aslan bases in their Dark Nebula data.

But I’m not convinced the low number was an intentional decision, either: It doesn’t make a lot of sense given steady Solomani encroachment on Aslan space.

A couple ideas might partially rationalize the current data. As discussed above, each Aslan clan maintains its own naval bases. Overlord and vassal clans can have separate bases, partners in a power bloc might have separate bases, and certainly rivals on a split control world would have separate bases. So many of the “missing” bases might actually be right in front of us, stacked up in single systems. Kusyu alone, for example, might have dozens of different Tlaukhu bases.

Further, many clan bases might be present but simply not be shown on Traveller Map. Maps of Imperial space, for example, do not show every single planetary or colonial naval base, even though they must exist. As CT Spinward Marches notes, “any world with a tech level of 7 or 8 and a population of 6+ will probably have a base for the local (planetary) naval forces (such forces will be capable of interplanetary, though not interstellar, flight). Any world with a tech level of 9+ and a population of 6+ will probably have a base for local naval forces (which are capable of interstellar flight, where necessary)” (40).

Although I think the low number of Tlaukhu bases might be a problem. I’m reluctant to recommend adding a bunch of new bases to the map willy-nilly. Has anyone else ever considered these questions before?

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