Aslan society is organized into three distinct tiers. The atomic unit of Aslan society is the ekho, or family, which consists of a single patriarch plus 2 to 12 individuals. Several families combine into an ahriy, or pride, with one family dominant. And several prides combine into a huiha, or clan, the largest unit of organization in the Hierate.
Estimating Aslan Clan Size
So how big are clans? We have previously assumed that the Aslan Hierate constituted approximately 6,300 to 7,000 worlds and a total population of 10.7 to 11.97 trillion, based on an average world population of 1.71 billion.
We know that not all inhabitants of the Hierate belong to a clan: some might be biological non-Aslan sophonts who are unwilling or unable to assimilate to Aslan culture, while others might be biological Aslan outlaws or outcasts, and depending upon the source, ihatei might be technically considered clanless. For simplicity, let’s assume about 20% of the Hierate population are not members of a clan, leaving 9.1 trillion clan members in the Hierate. With 4,000 clans that works out to an average clan population of 2.27 billion.
This seems rather large to me, but what if clan populations exhibit a range of populations so extreme as to skew the median result—just like world populations. Consider the average Imperial, Solomani, or Hierate world: all three generate world populations using 2D-2, creating a range of 0 to 10. The mathematical mean and the median result are the same: 5. However, the population rating is exponential in scale: each increase in rating represents an increased population by a factor of 10. A population code of 0 is 100, or 1. A population rating of 10 (A) is 1010, or 10 billion. This base population is then multiplied against a population multiplier ranging from 1 to 9, with an average of 5.
The following table shows the mean world population associated with each population rating as well as the percentage of worlds that would be expected to have that rating. The prorated population is simply the percent expected multiplied against the mean population.
| Pop Code | % Worlds | Mean Population | Prorated Popuation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.77 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 | 5.55 | 50 | 3 |
| 2 | 8.33 | 500 | 42 |
| 3 | 11.11 | 5,000 | 556 |
| 4 | 13.88 | 50,000 | 6,940 |
| 5 | 16.66 | 500,000 | 83,300 |
| 6 | 13.88 | 5,000,000 | 694,000 |
| 7 | 11.11 | 50,000,000 | 5,555,000 |
| 8 | 8.33 | 500,000,000 | 41,650,000 |
| 9 | 5.55 | 5,000,000,000 | 277,500,000 |
| 10 | 2.77 | 50,000,000,000 | 1,385,000,000 |
| Total | 99.96 | – | 1,710,489,840 |
Add these prorated populations together and you get the mean population of a Traveller world: 1.71 billion, in contrast to the median population, which is 500,000. Although most worlds in a Traveller sector will have populations well below level A, because of the exponential progression just a handful of high population worlds skew the average result. As is often noted, in Traveller over 97% of a typical subsector population lives on less than 10% of the worlds.
For discussion purposes, let’s assume we can apply the world population ratings to Aslan clans. Note that an average clan population of 2.27 billion is the same order-of-magnitude as the average world population. What if Aslan clans follow a similar population distribution as Aslan worlds? This would suggest that the largest clans would have populations in the tens of billions, the equivalent of a world population rating of A. A very small number of Tlaukhu clans might reach populations in the low hundreds of billions. As this would be fairly rare1, there’s probably no need to establish a population code of B—we can just assume that the Pop A code covers all populations of 10 billion or higher.
Here we need to consider how small the smallest possible clan could be. In theory, if the smallest Aslan family is 3 individuals, and we assume “several” means three or more, then three families of three individuals could constitute an entire pride, and three prides of three families could form a clan of 27 individuals, which seems a little ridiculous.
As there is no central government in the Hierate, a clan has to be large enough to provide basic services, to maintain a landholding, and to defend that holding against all comers. The smallest countries on 21st century Terra number in tens of thousands, excluding the Vatican City. I am inclined to think the smallest viable clan size would be the same, or Pop 4, though I could be persuaded by 3 or 5 2. But let’s work with Pop 4. By modifying our world population table to proportionally redistribute the Pop 0, 1, 2, and 3 results, we can get the following clan population table that lines up with our other estimates:
| Pop Code | % of Clans | Number of Clans | Mean Population | Prorated Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 19.23 | 773 | 50,000 | 9,615 |
| 5 | 23.08 | 928 | 500,000 | 115,406 |
| 6 | 19.23 | 773 | 5,000,000 | 961,485 |
| 7 | 15.39 | 619 | 50,000,000 | 7,696,038 |
| 8 | 11.54 | 464 | 500,000,000 | 57,702,965 |
| 9 | 7.69 | 309 | 5,000,000,000 | 384,455,528 |
| A | 3.84 | 154 | 50,000,000,000 | 1,918,814,076 |
| Total | 100.00 | 4,020 | – | 2,369,755,113 |
As we can see, with this distribution the median clan population is 50 million, but the mean population is 2.37 billion. By tweaking the average population multiplier slightly downward from 5 to 4.71 we could get this mean population to 2.27 billion.
It is certainly possible to create tables to randomly generate clan Population codes based on clan type—and I did so to test whether my overall math was working. And although I could make the numbers fit, the distribution of Population codes across different clan types felt rather arbitrary. A better way, I think, is to generate clan Population codes using the clan Holdings rating.
This is based on a couple of observations: first, because Population codes follow an exponential progression, a clan Population code is likely the same as the Population code of the highest population world directly controlled by that clan. Assume X is the highest world Population code controlled by a clan: that clan's Population code is also likely to be X, and can’t be less than X. Even if that clan controlled more than one world of population X, the total clan Population code might reach X+1, but would not be expected to reach X+2 or higher. So rather than attempting to count up the populations of all the worlds controlled by the clan, we need to instead focus on just identifying X, the Population code of the highest population world likely controlled by that clan.
Second, as a clan controls more and more worlds, X would be expected to increase in a predictable way, as Aslan world Populations codes are distributed across the familiar 2D curve. This allows us to calculate the odds of the highest population world based on the total number of worlds controlled. Only 2.77% of worlds have a Population code of A (tens of billions), so a clan that only controlled one world has only a 2.77% chance having a clan Population of A (tens of billions). A clan that controlled ten worlds, however, has a roughly 25% chance of having at least one Pop A world. A clan that controlled 20 worlds has a roughly 43% chance of having at least one Pop A world.
All Tlaukhu clans should be assumed to have Population A. A Single World clan would be normally have a Population code equal to the Population code of its homeworld. However, many worlds with the On-World Clan Control allegiance (AsWc) have Population codes of less than 4 (tens of thousands), which we had previously set as the likely minimum clan size. In such cases, the bulk of the clan's population must be found somewhere else: perhaps scattered on other On-World Clan worlds or Split Control worlds. In any case, there must be a good story why most of the clan doesn't actually live on the homeworld.
The following table can be used to randomly determine a clan Population code based on the clan’s Holdings code:
| 2D | Holdings | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | A | |
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | A |
| 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | A | A |
| 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | A | A |
| 10 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | A | A | A |
| 11 | 7 | 9 | A | A | A | A | A |
| 12 | 7 | A | A | A | A | A | A |
If more details about the clan’s population are desired, the following table can be used to randomly determine a clan’s population multiplier:
| 2D | Multiplier |
|---|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 |
| 11 | 9 |
| 12 | 2 |
For example, let’s say we wanted to determine the population of a clan with Holdings 7. Rolling 2D we get 8 for a Pop Code of 8, or hundreds of millions. Rolling 2D we get 9 for a population multiplier of 6, for a clan population of 600,000 million.
The following table summarizes typical populations for different Aslan clan types.
| Sovereignty | Clan Type | Number | Pop Codes | Mean Population | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Min | Max | Median | ||||
| Sovereign | Tlaukhu (AsTX) | 29 | A | A | A | 62.5 billion |
| Multiworld (AsMw) | 76 | 4 | A | 8 | 21 billion | |
| Single World (AsWc) | 930 | 4 | A | 6 | 2.2 billion | |
| Small | 1,200 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6.7 million | |
| Vassal | Tlaukhu, Direct (AsTv) | 102 | 4 | A | 7 | 5.6 billion |
| Tlaukhu, Indirect (AsTv) | 254 | 4 | A | 7 | 4.5 billion | |
| Vassal, Direct (AsVc) | 190 | 4 | A | 7 | 3.4 billion | |
| Vassal, Indirect (AsVc) | 380 | 4 | A | 7 | 3.4 billion | |
| Small Vassal | 861 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6.7 million | |
Footnotes
1 The average Tlaukhu clan would be expected to directly control 36 worlds across the entire Hierate. Population A worlds occur at a rate of approximately 2.77%, so each Tlaukhu member would be expected to only have one such world. Given the vagaries of random worldgen, a Tlaukhu member might have more than one world, or—more likely—some Tlaukhu members might directly control no Pop A worlds.
2 If one wished to have a Hierate with larger numbers of smaller clans, clans of smaller than size 4 could easily be added back in—they are just too small to be counted in the “more than 4,000 clans” estimate from CT Aslan. A million Pop 3 clans only amount to a population of 5 billion, barely a rounding error in the total population of Hierate.
Copyright Information
The illustration at the top of the blog is by William H. Keith from Travellers’ Digest 17 (1989).
The Traveller game in all forms is owned by Far Future Enterprises. Copyright © 1977 – 2022 Far Future Enterprises. Traveller is a registered trademark of Far Future Enterprises. Far Future permits web sites and fanzines for this game, provided it contains this notice, that Far Future is notified, and subject to a withdrawal of permission on 90 days notice. The contents of this site are for personal, non-commercial use only. Any use of Far Future Enterprises’s copyrighted material or trademarks anywhere on this web site and its files should not be viewed as a challenge to those copyrights or trademarks. In addition, any program/articles/file on this site cannot be republished or distributed without the consent of the author who contributed it.
Materials produced by Digest Group Publications (DGP) are copyright © Roger Sanger. Any use of Digest Group Publications’ copyrighted material or trademarks anywhere on this Web site and its files should not be viewed as a challenge to those copyrights. Usage is intended to follow the guidelines announced by Roger Sanger on the Traveller Mailing List for preserving the overall Traveller milieu.
No comments:
Post a Comment